@InProceedings{GherardiMoraKrug:2015:DeMoPr,
author = "Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino and Moraes, Luiz Eduardo de
Souza and Krug, Lilian Anne",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Desenvolvimento de um modelo previs{\~a}o do branqueamento de
corais em escala global",
booktitle = "Anais...",
year = "2015",
editor = "Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz
Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
pages = "2333--2340",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Brasileiro de Sensoriamento Remoto, 17. (SBSR)",
publisher = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
abstract = "Global coral bleaching episodes as those reported in 1982-83 and
1997-98, showed significant intra-regional differences in
intensity. These bleaching events are generally associated to
climatic forcing, namely thermal anomalies triggered by El Niņo
events. Evidences show that regional scale environmental
variability is one important component that determine the severity
of coral bleaching outbrakes. The combined use of remote sensing
and model reanalysis data with probabilistic graphical models
forms the basis of a process oriented model used to predict
bleaching intensity. This model scheme was first applied to
back-predict bleaching intensity in seven reef sites across Bahia
state coast in Brazil. There is now an ongoning research
inicitative aimed at testing the robustness of this approach in
two areas within the Caribbean region, using bleaching data from
the Reefbase Project. Area 1 encopassing Yucat{\'a}n and Belize,
and Area 2 including Florida, Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti,
Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. We have achieved a predictive
rate for bleaching of up to 88% with a clear dependence of the
five-day accumulated sea surface temperature (SST) and a secondary
influence of the wind regime. Area 1 of the Caribbean showed a
clear bleaching dependence on the five-day maximum SST, surface
salinity and the El Niņo Multivariate Index (MEI). Area 2 showed
that bleaching is conditionally dependent on the zonal surface
current and wind fields and with MEI. These results give a good
indication that the increase in the conditional dependencies,
compared to the Bahia experiment will contribute to more robust
predictions and acceptable prediction rates.",
conference-location = "Jo{\~a}o Pessoa",
conference-year = "25-29 abr. 2015",
isbn = "978-85-17-0076-8",
label = "474",
language = "pt",
organisation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM49SQ",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM49SQ",
targetfile = "p0474.pdf",
type = "Sistemas marinhos costeiros",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}